How far can the dollar go down?
Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.
Won't foreign Central Banks support the dollar?
Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can't even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn't one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world's resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world's reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced. In any event, it's not likely that foreign central banks will bail out the dollar, because that would in effect make them eat a realized loss in their current account. Moderately wealthy nations cannot afford to take the loss of the US, the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. The US has been a financial big brother who have bailed out other failing economies � but the US has no big brother to lean on, except maybe Russia, although that wouldn't go over too well in Washington. So if the US Defaults, who can come to the rescue?
Gold is cheap
Adjusted for inflation, Gold should be above 1500 � without considering any boom. Many are wondering if commodities can continue to increase, without considering how depressed commodity prices were in the late 90's. An economy can live without services, or money, but people cannot decide not to eat or use Oil. Gold is money, the high price in Gold is reflective of investors concern about the value of money � any money. The US Dollar is a reserve currency so when USD goes down, so do many other currencies. The majority of USD holders are foreigners, but that is changing (in the past 10 years foreign USD holders have decreased from 77% to 62%).
What to do?
An argument of this nature should end in a that's next or that you should do. Unfortunately, this is a complex situation with no magic bullet solution. On a basic personal finances level, one should sell your mortgage at any price and become debt free with low cost of living. Don't bet on any economic upturn that will save your finances, things will only get worse. Second, do what you do well � no matter what the value of the dollar or the state of the economy, there will always be demand for goods and services (unless you happen to be in real-estate business, in which case you could start looking into farms.) The good news is that in any time of chaos, uncertainty, and reorganization, there are always massive opportunities. Taking advantage of them may not require huge amounts of capital. Knowledge of the situation can cause one to be in the right place at the right time or at least not in the wrong place at the wrong time for example it would not be smart to be in south Florida amidst economic suffering which could lead to crime, rioting, overall fraud, and a depressed local economy.
Property surrounding small country towns has been doubling in 1 year! Farmland has increased by as much as 500% in some areas over the last few years. There are plentiful opportunities in this market, but they may not be the traditional opportunities that investors are accustomed to.
It's 2008
There is a new market thinking, accept it or not. We don't live in the 1970's, it's not 1970 it's 2008. In 1970 Russia was communist, now there are more billionaires in Moscow than in New York. In 1970 Oil had not yet peaked, there was no Internet, financial markets were not deregulated to the extent that they are now, there were no derivatives, no climate change, and no Oil hungry China. In 1970 Europe was scarcely organized, only 25 years of reconstruction post ww2, and there was no Euro.
Thinking Different
Therefore, the only way to survive in the New Investment Paradigm is to be nimble and stay ahead of the information curve. In any field, applied intelligence can earn a solid position and even great profits. Safe havens are no longer safe as they were, the bond market is getting destroyed by inflation, TIPS (inflation protected bonds) are trading negative for the first time ever, meaning you are betting inflation will be worse than the small loss you will take on the bonds.
A trader named Paulson made a record Wall Street profit on single trade, shorting SubPrime loans. Gold investors are happily sitting on 300%+ returns since 2002. Those holding US Dollar short positions have doubled their money in several years. CTA programs have achieved 70% - 150% in 2007, trading currencies, commodities, and futures. Anyone long Oil or Gasoline futures in the past months would have been very profitable.
Clearly, there are hundreds of opportunities but no clear magic bullet solution that could be recommended, compared to 5 years ago when a US Dollar short or Long Gold portfolio could have been safely recommended. It is for this reason Elite E Services is launching a Global Opportunities Hedge Fund, which should be ready by late spring. If you are trading for yourself, take quick profits and don't hold any positions for the long term, and seek new opportunities. Keep in mind the opportunities may be biased toward the Short side than the long side, as DOW and NASDAQ components will be hit by a sinking dollar, sinking US Economy, and credit problems.
The Euro Bull: New Paradigm of FOREX
As the EUR/USD breaks 1.50, investors should take another look at foreign exchange. 100/barrel oil, $1,000 gold, and $10/bushel wheat are not anomalies, nor is there a bull market in commodities. The US dollar is losing its value and its relevance as a world reserve currency.
What determines the value of a dollar? The common belief is that purchasing power determines the value of money, which is partially correct, but that is not the entire story. In a world of floating currencies, money is also valued in terms of other money. Simply opening a bank account in Europe, and gaining a few % per annum interest, would have returned a US based investor over a 50% return in 5 years. There are a few ways to look at that, but they all point to the same conclusion: the value of the dollar is declining. The other logical observation is that by NOT investing in the Euro, an investor is actually LOSING 50%. This is a difficult mental leap for many to make as they don't see losses in their bank account, but as we see $4/gallon gas, $3/gallon milk and skyrocketing commodity prices, many are noticing. They only have to realize the simple fact: prices are not increasing the value of US Dollars is declining.
Who is not affected by a declining dollar? The poor, debtors, manual laborers, and tradesmen (because you can continue to perform your trade for dollars, pesos, or bananas if need be regardless of the continuing slide of the dollar � tomorrow you may charge twice as much but so what?) But if you have any wealth; a house or a stock portfolio, denominated in dollars, the declining US Dollar should be the most important issue to you because that portfolio is losing value as the dollar does. In the worst case scenario, the Fed can default making US Dollars worthless overnight.
Best case, although unlikely it should be mentioned, the Fed could raise rates to 10%, Bush could declare a flat tax, open the borders to foreign investors by deregulation and providing tax incentives, pull out US Military from all foreign engagements, and be the banker of the world. This would catapult the US economy and the US Dollar to currently unimaginable success, but this is a farfetched fantasy. In reality, we are increasing our Military presence around the world, cutting interest rates, and regulating US markets, forcing even homegrown companies to look abroad.
Let's examine why the dollar is declining and what can potentially stop the decline.
The largest player in the US Dollar is clearly the Fed, the sole issuer of the US Dollar. Investment Banks and Hedge Funds, at the end of the day, rely on the Fed for regulation, clearing, liquidity, and currency controls; they are distributors and traders of US Dollars not the manufacturer. It clearly states on the Fed's website that the Fed conducts foreign currency operations in the open market, and maintains US holdings of foreign currency and swaps. This would indicate the Fed has the ability to intervene in currency markets in order to protect the strength of the dollar, and although the Fed may have that ability, it states in the same article that:
US monetary policy actions influence exchange rates. The dollar's exchange value in terms of other currencies is therefore one of the channels through which U.S. monetary policy affects the U.S. economy. If Federal Reserve actions raised U.S. interest rates, for instance, the foreign ex-change value of the dollar generally would rise. An increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, in turn, would raise the price in foreign currency of U.S. goods traded on world markets and lower the dollar price of goods imported into the United States. By restraining exports and boosting imports, these developments could lower output and price levels in the economy. In contrast, an increase in interest rates in a foreign country could raise worldwide demand for assets denominated in that country's currency and thereby reduce the dollar's value in terms of that currency. Other things being equal, U.S. output and price levels would tend to increase must the opposite of what happens when U.S. interest rates rise.
The Fed therefore officially controls exchange rates of the US Dollar through Monetary Policy. The Fed, in response to a weakening US economy and a Subprime crisis, has taken an aggressive policy of cutting interest rates, thus dropping the dollar.
So we cannot expect the Fed to solve the weak dollar issue, because they are the creators of it! The Fed could start aggressively raising interest rates and we could see the dollar soar to new highs. But there is a low chance of that happening, as they have indicated the contrary. As the credit crisis unravels, we can expect the Fed to continue cutting rates. With a weak stock market, a weak real estate market, and a weak economy, we can expect more doom and gloom before we see the light at the end of the tunnel, and in the meantime the US Dollar can sink another 80% or more, as the Great British Pound did when it lost its status as reserve currency.
Technically, once a downward spiral starts in currency, it is very difficult to stop. In stocks, an issuer can buy back shares in order to dry up liquidity and stabilize the price; a common practice among penny stocks listed on pink sheets. However if the US Dollar declines, the Fed would need Euros in order to buy back US Dollars, and since the Fed is not an issuer of Euros, it would take a near act of God to convince the ECB to loan the trillions necessary to support the dollar in the event of a default or run on the banks. While the Fed does have some mechanisms in place to stabilize the markets, the act of supporting your own currency is like pulling yourself out of a sinkhole by your own hair. Once the selling starts, it could feed on itself and create a downward spiral � as the value goes down more large holders, worried about further losses, may panic and sell, thus adding fuel to the fire.
It would be anything but capitalism if we didn't profit from this once in a lifetime opportunity of a declining dollar. On one hand, wealth will be wiped out en masse � on the other, it will be created. A transfer of paper wealth from USD to Euro and other currencies is inevitable; why be on the wrong side of the fence? Germans, Argentineans, Japanese, French, British, Italians, Turks, and many others, can attest to the events surrounding currency collapse and hyper inflation. They say it cannot happen to USA because of the TBTF Too Big to Fail Policy, a fallacious reasoning that came out of a Senate hearing on banking regulation.
All the facts and economic data point to massive dollar sell-off look at a USD/CHF chart and you can plainly see it has already started.
FX as an asset class
There are many ways to invest in FX as an asset, but this should be done only with the help of a qualified professional or someone with experience in FX. Everbank offers foreign currency CD's and foreign currency deposit accounts: https://www.everbank.com/ This will not excite most investors but at least you can have non-dollar denominated deposits insured by the FDIC.
For a more versatile approach, CTA's offer FOREX Managed Accounts, usually with minimums starting at $10,000. These accounts are pure FX trading strategies, some are extremely conservative and others are extremely aggressive. Various strategies can be implemented on these accounts which vary from simple news and economic analysis by traders with 20 years experience, to fully automated quant systems.
Funds such as the MERK hard currency fund offer FX specific returns as a mutual fund. From their website: http://www.merkfund.com/
The Merk Hard Currency Fund (MERKX) is a no-load mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. Many consumers are aware of the falling dollar but don't know how to protect their capital against its decline. Others are uncomfortable choosing specific foreign currencies to invest in or investing in currency derivatives. The Fund may serve as a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market, credit and interest risks-with the ease of investing in a mutual fund. The Fund may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market.
Hedge Funds are another venue for FX investing, but they typically have a $1 Million minimum and employ risky strategies.
FX Overlay
If a business or portfolio has exposure to multiple currencies, a hedging program can be implemented that combines multiple strategies to deal with currency risk. Large corporations such as Intel may have their own treasury desks, but smaller companies or financial firms may not have the resources or knowledge in place to justify such programs, however there are many companies who offer this service, or it could be built using proven models from the ground up.
FX as an industry
Explosive growth opportunities exist in the FX industry as US based investors take notice. The real opportunity in FX is in marketing, because of the widespread lack of knowledge about FX. Sadly, you don't need to know much to make a fortune in this field, and it's the marketers that will ultimately make the most, as they introduce an uneducated and unenlightened public into the most significant market of our age. What will out of work real-estate developers do as the market continues to weaken?
Beware FX Scams!
Because FX is completely deregulated, FX attracts many criminals. The allure of a secretive market only traded by large banks makes a good pitch to unsuspecting suckers. However there are a few easy ways to determine scams from the real thing, such as the NFA, CFTC, SEC, or by dealing with only companies and individuals who associate themselves with large FX firms who are registered with the NFA. The fact that FX attracts criminals doesn't diminish the opportunities in FX any more than the movie oiler Room proves that all stock brokers are cocaine snorting crooks.
This article is by no means exhaustive nor is it intended to be. Regarding bias on the topic, considering we are in this business, the fact that these opportunities exist, and the fact that dollar is declining, is why we ARE in this business and not in stocks or bonds. A day may come where FX is the only significant market left in the world, as domestic exchanges are ravaged by reckless monetary policies and rogue political administrations. In the meantime, protect yourself against calamity and position yourself to capitalize on the opportunity of a lifetime.
If you aren't familiar with Elite E Services, we recommended buying Gold at 279 and investing in New Zealand Dollars in 2002 when the NZD/USD was .39. George Soros made his fortune trading currencies, not selling stocks. In the mid-1990's, Intel made more money in FX than selling processors.
February 26th, 2008 - This day will be remembered by many as the last day of the Dollar's reserve status. May we remember the US Dollar well, in the good times.
What determines the value of a dollar? The common belief is that purchasing power determines the value of money, which is partially correct, but that is not the entire story. In a world of floating currencies, money is also valued in terms of other money. Simply opening a bank account in Europe, and gaining a few % per annum interest, would have returned a US based investor over a 50% return in 5 years. There are a few ways to look at that, but they all point to the same conclusion: the value of the dollar is declining. The other logical observation is that by NOT investing in the Euro, an investor is actually LOSING 50%. This is a difficult mental leap for many to make as they don't see losses in their bank account, but as we see $4/gallon gas, $3/gallon milk and skyrocketing commodity prices, many are noticing. They only have to realize the simple fact: prices are not increasing the value of US Dollars is declining.
Who is not affected by a declining dollar? The poor, debtors, manual laborers, and tradesmen (because you can continue to perform your trade for dollars, pesos, or bananas if need be regardless of the continuing slide of the dollar � tomorrow you may charge twice as much but so what?) But if you have any wealth; a house or a stock portfolio, denominated in dollars, the declining US Dollar should be the most important issue to you because that portfolio is losing value as the dollar does. In the worst case scenario, the Fed can default making US Dollars worthless overnight.
Best case, although unlikely it should be mentioned, the Fed could raise rates to 10%, Bush could declare a flat tax, open the borders to foreign investors by deregulation and providing tax incentives, pull out US Military from all foreign engagements, and be the banker of the world. This would catapult the US economy and the US Dollar to currently unimaginable success, but this is a farfetched fantasy. In reality, we are increasing our Military presence around the world, cutting interest rates, and regulating US markets, forcing even homegrown companies to look abroad.
Let's examine why the dollar is declining and what can potentially stop the decline.
The largest player in the US Dollar is clearly the Fed, the sole issuer of the US Dollar. Investment Banks and Hedge Funds, at the end of the day, rely on the Fed for regulation, clearing, liquidity, and currency controls; they are distributors and traders of US Dollars not the manufacturer. It clearly states on the Fed's website that the Fed conducts foreign currency operations in the open market, and maintains US holdings of foreign currency and swaps. This would indicate the Fed has the ability to intervene in currency markets in order to protect the strength of the dollar, and although the Fed may have that ability, it states in the same article that:
US monetary policy actions influence exchange rates. The dollar's exchange value in terms of other currencies is therefore one of the channels through which U.S. monetary policy affects the U.S. economy. If Federal Reserve actions raised U.S. interest rates, for instance, the foreign ex-change value of the dollar generally would rise. An increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, in turn, would raise the price in foreign currency of U.S. goods traded on world markets and lower the dollar price of goods imported into the United States. By restraining exports and boosting imports, these developments could lower output and price levels in the economy. In contrast, an increase in interest rates in a foreign country could raise worldwide demand for assets denominated in that country's currency and thereby reduce the dollar's value in terms of that currency. Other things being equal, U.S. output and price levels would tend to increase must the opposite of what happens when U.S. interest rates rise.
The Fed therefore officially controls exchange rates of the US Dollar through Monetary Policy. The Fed, in response to a weakening US economy and a Subprime crisis, has taken an aggressive policy of cutting interest rates, thus dropping the dollar.
So we cannot expect the Fed to solve the weak dollar issue, because they are the creators of it! The Fed could start aggressively raising interest rates and we could see the dollar soar to new highs. But there is a low chance of that happening, as they have indicated the contrary. As the credit crisis unravels, we can expect the Fed to continue cutting rates. With a weak stock market, a weak real estate market, and a weak economy, we can expect more doom and gloom before we see the light at the end of the tunnel, and in the meantime the US Dollar can sink another 80% or more, as the Great British Pound did when it lost its status as reserve currency.
Technically, once a downward spiral starts in currency, it is very difficult to stop. In stocks, an issuer can buy back shares in order to dry up liquidity and stabilize the price; a common practice among penny stocks listed on pink sheets. However if the US Dollar declines, the Fed would need Euros in order to buy back US Dollars, and since the Fed is not an issuer of Euros, it would take a near act of God to convince the ECB to loan the trillions necessary to support the dollar in the event of a default or run on the banks. While the Fed does have some mechanisms in place to stabilize the markets, the act of supporting your own currency is like pulling yourself out of a sinkhole by your own hair. Once the selling starts, it could feed on itself and create a downward spiral � as the value goes down more large holders, worried about further losses, may panic and sell, thus adding fuel to the fire.
It would be anything but capitalism if we didn't profit from this once in a lifetime opportunity of a declining dollar. On one hand, wealth will be wiped out en masse � on the other, it will be created. A transfer of paper wealth from USD to Euro and other currencies is inevitable; why be on the wrong side of the fence? Germans, Argentineans, Japanese, French, British, Italians, Turks, and many others, can attest to the events surrounding currency collapse and hyper inflation. They say it cannot happen to USA because of the TBTF Too Big to Fail Policy, a fallacious reasoning that came out of a Senate hearing on banking regulation.
All the facts and economic data point to massive dollar sell-off look at a USD/CHF chart and you can plainly see it has already started.
FX as an asset class
There are many ways to invest in FX as an asset, but this should be done only with the help of a qualified professional or someone with experience in FX. Everbank offers foreign currency CD's and foreign currency deposit accounts: https://www.everbank.com/ This will not excite most investors but at least you can have non-dollar denominated deposits insured by the FDIC.
For a more versatile approach, CTA's offer FOREX Managed Accounts, usually with minimums starting at $10,000. These accounts are pure FX trading strategies, some are extremely conservative and others are extremely aggressive. Various strategies can be implemented on these accounts which vary from simple news and economic analysis by traders with 20 years experience, to fully automated quant systems.
Funds such as the MERK hard currency fund offer FX specific returns as a mutual fund. From their website: http://www.merkfund.com/
The Merk Hard Currency Fund (MERKX) is a no-load mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. Many consumers are aware of the falling dollar but don't know how to protect their capital against its decline. Others are uncomfortable choosing specific foreign currencies to invest in or investing in currency derivatives. The Fund may serve as a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market, credit and interest risks-with the ease of investing in a mutual fund. The Fund may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market.
Hedge Funds are another venue for FX investing, but they typically have a $1 Million minimum and employ risky strategies.
FX Overlay
If a business or portfolio has exposure to multiple currencies, a hedging program can be implemented that combines multiple strategies to deal with currency risk. Large corporations such as Intel may have their own treasury desks, but smaller companies or financial firms may not have the resources or knowledge in place to justify such programs, however there are many companies who offer this service, or it could be built using proven models from the ground up.
FX as an industry
Explosive growth opportunities exist in the FX industry as US based investors take notice. The real opportunity in FX is in marketing, because of the widespread lack of knowledge about FX. Sadly, you don't need to know much to make a fortune in this field, and it's the marketers that will ultimately make the most, as they introduce an uneducated and unenlightened public into the most significant market of our age. What will out of work real-estate developers do as the market continues to weaken?
Beware FX Scams!
Because FX is completely deregulated, FX attracts many criminals. The allure of a secretive market only traded by large banks makes a good pitch to unsuspecting suckers. However there are a few easy ways to determine scams from the real thing, such as the NFA, CFTC, SEC, or by dealing with only companies and individuals who associate themselves with large FX firms who are registered with the NFA. The fact that FX attracts criminals doesn't diminish the opportunities in FX any more than the movie oiler Room proves that all stock brokers are cocaine snorting crooks.
This article is by no means exhaustive nor is it intended to be. Regarding bias on the topic, considering we are in this business, the fact that these opportunities exist, and the fact that dollar is declining, is why we ARE in this business and not in stocks or bonds. A day may come where FX is the only significant market left in the world, as domestic exchanges are ravaged by reckless monetary policies and rogue political administrations. In the meantime, protect yourself against calamity and position yourself to capitalize on the opportunity of a lifetime.
If you aren't familiar with Elite E Services, we recommended buying Gold at 279 and investing in New Zealand Dollars in 2002 when the NZD/USD was .39. George Soros made his fortune trading currencies, not selling stocks. In the mid-1990's, Intel made more money in FX than selling processors.
February 26th, 2008 - This day will be remembered by many as the last day of the Dollar's reserve status. May we remember the US Dollar well, in the good times.
What is Fundamental Analysis
Fundamentals are associated with the economic health of a company, measured in terms of revenues, earnings, assets, liabilities, Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Investments (ROI), growth prospects and cash flows, etc. The fundamentals tell you about a company. You can say a company is having robust fundamentals if it is growing at a nice pace, generating a profit, has limited debts and abundant cash.
The analysis of a company¡¯s fundamentals involves getting deep into its financials, rather than day-to-day movement in its share price. Equity researchers normally do fundamental analysis in order to calculate the intrinsic value of a company¡¯s stock. If a company¡¯s stock is trading above the intrinsic value or fair value, then the stock is overvalued. If a company¡¯s stock is trading below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued. However, if you watch the stock markets very closely, the share price of most companies never matches the fair value. Often, day traders and investors who would prefer short term investment options invest in those stocks, regardless of the companies¡¯ long term growth prospects. However, long term investors generally prefer to invest in companies with robust fundamentals and ignore near-term share price movements.
The following are various components that constitute a company¡¯s fundamentals:
Revenues: Revenues (sales) are the total amount of money received by a company through the sales of its goods and services during a specific period of time. Revenues are one of the most important barometers of the growth of a company as it indicates whether there is demand for their products and services.
Cash flows: Cash flows are calculated by deducting a company¡¯s cash payments from cash receipts over a particular period of time. Cash flows indicate the liquidity position of a company. However, one must pay particular attention to the operating cash flows, since the health of the business can be most clearly seen there.
Net income: Net income, which is also called the ¡®bottom line¡¯, is calculated by subtracting from revenue, all of the company¡¯s costs, such as operating costs, interest expenses, depreciation, taxes and other expenses associated with running the business.
Balance Sheet: Balance sheet is the company¡¯s financial statement, which reflects its assets and liabilities. A company¡¯s fundamentals are said to be robust if its assets are significantly higher than the liabilities. However, one must carefully analyze companies who are reporting large intangible assets as they may have questionable liquidation value to offset any real liabilities.
Return on Assets (ROA): ROA is an Indicator of a company¡¯s profitability, which is calculated by dividing the net income for the past 12 months by total average assets of the company. This is one of the important indicators, which long-term investors consider before investing into a particular stock.
Although long-term investors and institutional investors consider a company¡¯s fundamentals before investing, the share price of a company often does not correspond to the fundamentals ¨C which can present enormous investment opportunities. A company¡¯s long-term growth is driven primarily by fundamentals, while a company¡¯s share price can be driven by short-term news and investor sentiment, which can be extremely volatile. Every investor must consider a company¡¯s fundamentals before investing into its stock if you want to gain stable returns over the long term.
The analysis of a company¡¯s fundamentals involves getting deep into its financials, rather than day-to-day movement in its share price. Equity researchers normally do fundamental analysis in order to calculate the intrinsic value of a company¡¯s stock. If a company¡¯s stock is trading above the intrinsic value or fair value, then the stock is overvalued. If a company¡¯s stock is trading below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued. However, if you watch the stock markets very closely, the share price of most companies never matches the fair value. Often, day traders and investors who would prefer short term investment options invest in those stocks, regardless of the companies¡¯ long term growth prospects. However, long term investors generally prefer to invest in companies with robust fundamentals and ignore near-term share price movements.
The following are various components that constitute a company¡¯s fundamentals:
Revenues: Revenues (sales) are the total amount of money received by a company through the sales of its goods and services during a specific period of time. Revenues are one of the most important barometers of the growth of a company as it indicates whether there is demand for their products and services.
Cash flows: Cash flows are calculated by deducting a company¡¯s cash payments from cash receipts over a particular period of time. Cash flows indicate the liquidity position of a company. However, one must pay particular attention to the operating cash flows, since the health of the business can be most clearly seen there.
Net income: Net income, which is also called the ¡®bottom line¡¯, is calculated by subtracting from revenue, all of the company¡¯s costs, such as operating costs, interest expenses, depreciation, taxes and other expenses associated with running the business.
Balance Sheet: Balance sheet is the company¡¯s financial statement, which reflects its assets and liabilities. A company¡¯s fundamentals are said to be robust if its assets are significantly higher than the liabilities. However, one must carefully analyze companies who are reporting large intangible assets as they may have questionable liquidation value to offset any real liabilities.
Return on Assets (ROA): ROA is an Indicator of a company¡¯s profitability, which is calculated by dividing the net income for the past 12 months by total average assets of the company. This is one of the important indicators, which long-term investors consider before investing into a particular stock.
Although long-term investors and institutional investors consider a company¡¯s fundamentals before investing, the share price of a company often does not correspond to the fundamentals ¨C which can present enormous investment opportunities. A company¡¯s long-term growth is driven primarily by fundamentals, while a company¡¯s share price can be driven by short-term news and investor sentiment, which can be extremely volatile. Every investor must consider a company¡¯s fundamentals before investing into its stock if you want to gain stable returns over the long term.
Forex Trading - A Simple Tip to Increase Your Profits and Reduce Your Effort Instantly!
I have been a Forex broker, taught Forex and been in contact with several thousand traders. The enclosed tip is simple one the vast majority of traders I have come into contact with don't understand - but if they did, the tip would increase their profits dramatically.
The tip is based on the 80 - 20 rule which is used in a wide variety of areas of life for example, in business it says 80% of your profits will normally come from just 20% of your clients. In Forex terms it means - 80% of your overall profits will come from just 20% of your trades.
The reality is that most Forex traders take far too many trades, if they cut back on their trading frequency and only hit high odds trades their profits will increase dramatically.
They hold the following beliefs which are simply not true
- They can make money by scalping or day trading
These short term trades are low odds trades in fact - the odds are you will lose, as you are trading the market noise.
- They need to be in the market just in case they miss a move
If course this is rubbish, you can spot a move and enter when the time is right!
- The harder the work and the more trades they make the more money they will make
The work ethic doesn't apply in Forex; many people think with effort they can force money from the market and they lose.
Be Smart and Aim for 100% Annual Profits
I know traders that trade less than once a month yet still turn in triple digit annual profits! There not interested in working hard or trading all the time, their interested in making money and that means hitting the high odds trades and milking them for all their worth. These traders make a lot of money, not by working hard but working smart.
Less is More Hit the Big Trends
The high odds trades don't come around every day and you need to wait for them but when they do, they will give you high odds set ups, greater chances of success with less work and that is something all Forex traders want!
The tip is based on the 80 - 20 rule which is used in a wide variety of areas of life for example, in business it says 80% of your profits will normally come from just 20% of your clients. In Forex terms it means - 80% of your overall profits will come from just 20% of your trades.
The reality is that most Forex traders take far too many trades, if they cut back on their trading frequency and only hit high odds trades their profits will increase dramatically.
They hold the following beliefs which are simply not true
- They can make money by scalping or day trading
These short term trades are low odds trades in fact - the odds are you will lose, as you are trading the market noise.
- They need to be in the market just in case they miss a move
If course this is rubbish, you can spot a move and enter when the time is right!
- The harder the work and the more trades they make the more money they will make
The work ethic doesn't apply in Forex; many people think with effort they can force money from the market and they lose.
Be Smart and Aim for 100% Annual Profits
I know traders that trade less than once a month yet still turn in triple digit annual profits! There not interested in working hard or trading all the time, their interested in making money and that means hitting the high odds trades and milking them for all their worth. These traders make a lot of money, not by working hard but working smart.
Less is More Hit the Big Trends
The high odds trades don't come around every day and you need to wait for them but when they do, they will give you high odds set ups, greater chances of success with less work and that is something all Forex traders want!
Enhance your forex trading with an automated trading application
One of the differences between the stock market and the forex market is the vast trading that occurs on the forex market. The foreign exchange market
(currency, forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. The forex trading market is a volatile industry. It is also a very lucrative market. However, to be a successful FX trader you need to educate yourself and have a long term plan. The lack of a forex trading strategy will guarantee failure. When starting out as a forex trader it is easy to abandon your plan or lack of a plan. A good forex trading education is a must.
Being well verse in the stock market will assist you with your forex trading. However, to enter into the foreign exchange market it is not necessary to have any prior trading experience. Some basic forex strategy systems are the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecast. The data used in this analysis is; money policy, government policy and economic indicators. Some examples are GDP, exports and imports. The analysis of this data is for a specific business cycle.
Technical analysis
Forex technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price and volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts, sometimes called "chartists", may employ models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations.
Before you dive head first into the forex market open up a demo account. A forex demo account is a simulated account where you get virtual money of $25,000 to $1, 00,000. You get live quotes and bids that are part of real forex trade. Once you have master that are ready to take the plunge into the real thing open up a mini account.
A mini account is a great stepping-stone to the big leagues of FX. It allows you to open up an account where the leverage is higher in comparison to standard accounts. With a mini account you are dealing with mini contracts. You can open up a mini account with $250. When you are ready you can move onto a standard account
The forex market welcomes traders 24 hours a day. Forex market opens on Sunday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT), closes on Friday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT). No matter what region of the world you live in you can trade on the forex. As one market is opening, another countries market is closing. This is the continual method of how the forex market trading occurs. An example of forex trades in the western region of the world is USD/EUR and USD/GBP. An example of a forex trade in the Asian Economic regions or the world is JPY/USD and JPY/GBP.
Technology is a beautiful thing. To be involved in these markets you don't have to be awake for every different time zone. Automated analytical forex software applications allow you trade during the middle of the night while you sleep. There are many, different type of automated forex software applications on the market. Some of the most commonly used applications are forex killer, auto- pilot and forex-funnel to mention a few. These applications are used by; professionals and beginners alike with no experience whatsoever. These applications can assist you with a forex trading strategies.
(currency, forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. The forex trading market is a volatile industry. It is also a very lucrative market. However, to be a successful FX trader you need to educate yourself and have a long term plan. The lack of a forex trading strategy will guarantee failure. When starting out as a forex trader it is easy to abandon your plan or lack of a plan. A good forex trading education is a must.
Being well verse in the stock market will assist you with your forex trading. However, to enter into the foreign exchange market it is not necessary to have any prior trading experience. Some basic forex strategy systems are the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecast. The data used in this analysis is; money policy, government policy and economic indicators. Some examples are GDP, exports and imports. The analysis of this data is for a specific business cycle.
Technical analysis
Forex technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price and volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts, sometimes called "chartists", may employ models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations.
Before you dive head first into the forex market open up a demo account. A forex demo account is a simulated account where you get virtual money of $25,000 to $1, 00,000. You get live quotes and bids that are part of real forex trade. Once you have master that are ready to take the plunge into the real thing open up a mini account.
A mini account is a great stepping-stone to the big leagues of FX. It allows you to open up an account where the leverage is higher in comparison to standard accounts. With a mini account you are dealing with mini contracts. You can open up a mini account with $250. When you are ready you can move onto a standard account
The forex market welcomes traders 24 hours a day. Forex market opens on Sunday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT), closes on Friday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT). No matter what region of the world you live in you can trade on the forex. As one market is opening, another countries market is closing. This is the continual method of how the forex market trading occurs. An example of forex trades in the western region of the world is USD/EUR and USD/GBP. An example of a forex trade in the Asian Economic regions or the world is JPY/USD and JPY/GBP.
Technology is a beautiful thing. To be involved in these markets you don't have to be awake for every different time zone. Automated analytical forex software applications allow you trade during the middle of the night while you sleep. There are many, different type of automated forex software applications on the market. Some of the most commonly used applications are forex killer, auto- pilot and forex-funnel to mention a few. These applications are used by; professionals and beginners alike with no experience whatsoever. These applications can assist you with a forex trading strategies.
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